2026-10-03
context: Against the Grain (Book), Goliath's Curse (Book), Collapse of Complex Societies (Book)
We imagine collapse as Max Max
[Cue: short clip of last Max Max]
As anarchy: a dog eat dog world of some imagined past – or future.
We also see it as sudden. A cliff we don't see and suddenly tumble down.
[cue: Cliff]
Even a cliff in a graph, like a stock market picture of the great depression, endless jagged lines downwards with short recoveries before a further plunge.
[Cue: a jagged graph falling off to the right dramatically]
We also see it as bad. Buildings collapse in earthquakes [cue] and people are trapped inside. Economies collapse in hyperinflation and people go destitute in the streets [cue]. Societal collapse must likewise be bad, very bad.
When I first read Tainter nearly 30y ago [cue] this is what I imagined: "The collapse of complex societies" showed the sack of Rome on its cover. Even for its measured scientific investigation, what lay behind was an collective unconscious of fire and sword, rape and pillage.
We have a Hobbes in all of us. [cue picture of Hobbes]
Part 2
But is it so?
When we read the lamentation of Epuwer, when we read … we are hearing the lament of the rich and powerful.
We are hearing the vision created by the early archaeologists who naturally focused on great buildings, monuments, the grand burials. Things that left signs for us to find.
Perhaps it wasn't nearly so bad for the average peasant. Perhaps it was even good?
And it wasn't necessarily sudden either: Rome declined over decades, even centuries. Perhaps the cultural disease was already there when Augustus became emperor. By the time the "sack" came Rome was already a shell of its former self.
So perhaps collapse is neither sudden, nor bad for the 99%, nor does it mean anarchy.
We'd have to temper this. Trade got less complex: you couldn't get the pottery you got before. And maybe with Rome there is some evidence that average health declined (but not by much).
We explode into the sun, into life. we grow