How do we evaluate when a technology is promising or not? e.g. often hear re blockchain that even if not working now, will work someday just like X tech before which was unpromising at the beginning

This has analogies with the "stopping problem" or one-armed bandit problem in operation theory: ie. when to stop on a given avenue of innovation.

Often hear argument re abc/blockchain etc that it's like the early internet i.e. its got revolutionary potential but just hasn't made it yet.

More generally, hear arguments like: "even if tech of blockchain is not promising it is generating all this experimentation in governance which will yield some fruits".

How do we evaluate these claims? There's an analogy here with pascal's mugging in the sense that lots of tech out there with potential.

Particularly interesting with abc/blockchain where so much of the value (or at least money) relates to belief equilibria e.g. bitcoin only valuable if people believe it's valuable etc.

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